froscon2008 - 1.1
FrOSCon
Free and Open Source Software Conference
| Speakers | |
|---|---|
|
Stefan Merten |
| Schedule | |
|---|---|
| Day | Day 2 (2008-08-24) |
| Room | HS3 |
| Start time | 15:15 |
| Duration | 01:00 |
| Info | |
| ID | 181 |
| Event type | lecture |
| Track | Future Trends |
| Language used for presentation | en |
| Feedback | |
|---|---|
|
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The (Open Source) World in 2020
A History Based Look into the Future
The talk addresses the FrOSCon topic "The Open Source World in 2020 - Ein Blick in die Glaskugel...". To address the topic from a scientific perspective the talk takes the position of: If you want to predict future you must have understood history. In its first part the talk looks back into the history of Free Software as the most visible and most successful example of an Open Source phenomenon. It sketches a picture beginning with the earliest forms of Free Software until today. In the second part the talk explains Selbstentfaltung and openness as the basic principles of the phenomenon of Free Software and similar phenomena. It explains how these principles constitute a new mode of production and why this mode is stronger than the capitalist one. The talk gives a short introduction to a general model of development and shows how Free Software as well as capitalism develop(ed) according to this model. The third part draws the conclusion and extrapolates the discoveries to the near future. It is outlined where further expansion and deeper embedding of those basic principles can be expected.
See http://en.wiki.oekonux.org/StefanMerten/FrOSCon2008#slides for a nicer format of the following slides.
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The (Open Source) World in 2020
A History Based Look into the Future
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:Author: Stefan Merten :Organization: Project Oekonux
A brief look into history
Let's go 24 years back: 1984
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To peek into the future it is important to understand history
Free Software very small
Hard to notice at all
Internet did not exists as it does today
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One of the main foundations of today's Free Software
A few decided persons with lots of idealism
- Like Richard M. Stallman
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Just founded GNU project
No similar phenomenon
But: Basic principles were already there
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What the basic principles are follows in second part
12 years later...: 1996
3936a8163a709c8c880d21021da96683.. container:: handout
Company involvement was very small
"Open Source" was not invented
Still no similar phenomenons
- Though the example started to inspire people
Important: Basic principles stayed
.. admonition:: Conclusion
Good ideas grow because they are useful to people
Today: 2008 [1/2]
Free Software is here to stay
Lots of contributors
A sustainable and enduring economy exists
.. container:: handout
I.e.: A system where goods are produced and distributed
- Though not an economy based on exchange...
Free Software is very visible
- Using Free Software is common place and growing
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Companies engage in Free Software in various ways
- Last frontier: The desktop
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But Ubuntu comes for the helping
Today: 2008 [2/2]
a346d153197beed9ab69944d48d11c34.. container:: handout
And some more...
The successful example of Free Software inspired these
Based on the same basic principles
Basic principles turned out to be successful
And also in other fields than software
.. admonition:: Conclusion
Basic principles are strong enough to spread out
Understanding history
First basic principle: Selbstentfaltung
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What are those basic principles after all?
Selbstentfaltung simplified:
Having fun individually
While maintaining a relationship to society
Fundamental motivator for humans
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Complex reasoning in Critical Psychology based on evolution
Different for every individual
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Good news: Every task may find an executor
Includes responsibility
Important expression: Volunteering for useful tasks
.. admonition:: Conclusion
Something what individual and society wants
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This combination is pretty new to mankind
Second basic principle: Openness
Openness in two ways
Internal openness: Everyone may contribute
External openness: Everyone may use the results
Technology of digital copy is the historical enabler of openness
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Made external and internal openness easy
"Free" in Free Software really means:
Internal openness is a prerequisite for external openness
And vice versa
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That defines a positive feedback cycle
*Societal* phenomenons - not only technology
A new mode of production emerges
708f13bccfa8796c83860350cf53f200.. container:: handout
Feudalism is the prior one
No exchange in the core of peer production
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Can not be explained by classic economic theory
"This is doomed to fail" - they say
But: It exists, grows and is mimicked in more and more fields
.. admonition:: Conclusion
Something wrong with classic economy ;-)
Power from new principles
Power comes from the basic principles
Selbstentfaltung leads to absolute quality
If it is your thing you want to be proud of it
No boss stops you from doing it
Impossible if you need to make profit
Positive feedback cycle of openness leads to sustainable expansion
Stronger principles than that of proprietary software
.. admonition:: Conclusion
Oekonux thesis: New mode of production => new society
Five-step model of development [1/2]
.. container:: handout
Saw: Basic principles forming new mode of production
Now: Explanation of how development occurs
Germ form = something based on new principles
1: Emergence step - Emergence of the germ form
- Think: Free Software in 1984
2: Crisis step - Crisis of the old form
- Think: Crisis of Unix on midrange servers
3: Expansion step - Germ form becomes important in the old process
- Think: Free Software today
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Coexists with the old form
Not always peaceful
- Key question: Does it keep its germ form features?
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For Free Software: Basic principles can not be integrated
Five-step model of development [2/2]
e796185a71e417fbcf0278b6735ddf0e .. admonition:: Conclusion There is hope!Successful germ form: 200 years back
5134fa21a266d722c74fd1d51c1d4727 .. admonition:: Conclusion A new mode of production as a germ form *can* take overA peek into the future
Some words of caution
fc456052d4d5eba4b04895a26d045e87 .. admonition:: Conclusion But the question was only for 12 years ;-)Vertical expansion
62ea1920931af6c86fa591a449dce913 .. admonition:: Conclusion Vertical expansion is quite sureHorizontal expansion
0d2b32e56535e02c3926f19af2f7f16f.. container:: handout
Because of technology of digital copy
- Easier when you don't need lots of expensive infrastructure
Some guesses
Free pharmaceutical information
Free genetic information
Free hardware designs picked up by industry
Free car design picked up by industry
.. admonition:: Conclusion
Horizontal expansion depends on many aspects
Deeper embedding
Principles more widely accepted
States further this more
- Basic income for this type of activity
Companies exploit these principles more and more
- See Eric v. Hippel's work on User Innovation
.. admonition:: Conclusion
More won't happen in 12 years
Wrap up
Summary
Free Software took time to take off
Basic principles: Selbstentfaltung and openness
On this basis a new mode of production emerges
New mode of production will determine the future
We are witnessing the first steps into a new epoch
.. admonition:: Conclusion
In 2020 you will know whether I'm right ;-)
Thank you
For more on this: http://www.oekonux.org/
Contact: smerten AT oekonux DOT de
4th Oekonux Conference
Free Software and Beyond - The World of Peer Production
2009-03-27..29, Manchester (UK)
.. admonition:: Conclusion
Thank you for listening